Jocelyn Dubé
2026
Preface
Most investors fail. Not because they pick the wrong stocks, but because they play the wrong game.
I spent twenty-five years learning this the hard way. I studied valuation, calculated intrinsic value, and believed I had become a serious investor when I could determine a margin of safety before buying. I was wrong. I had started at the end.
With time, I realized that valuation comes last, not first. As Munger says, there is always a limit to what you should pay — even for an exceptional business. But the exceptional business must come first. So I began to ask different questions: What makes a business compound internally? What characteristics matter before price ever enters the picture?
This shift led me from value investing toward growth — not the reckless kind, but the disciplined search for durable compounding machines.
And then, after two decades in the market, I began to question the forces behind compounding itself. The mathematics. The physics. The mental models that govern long-term wealth. I never liked math or physics. But I could not ignore them.
This led me to an uncomfortable revelation: the investor is often the deciding factor between success and ruin — not because of what they don’t know, but because of what they fail to grasp. The weight of time. The logic of survival. The power of doing nothing. The danger of doing too much.
The market does not reward intelligence. It rewards survival. It does not reward activity. It rewards stillness. It does not care about your analysis. It cares about your behavior.
This book is an attempt to map these lessons into a coherent system: a framework for surviving first and compounding second. It offers no predictions, no stock picks, no shortcuts. Only a way of thinking — and a way of behaving — that tilts the odds in your favor over time.
What follows will be published one chapter at a time on this page. When complete, the full book will be available for download. It is free because I have nothing to sell. If it helps you stay in the game, that is enough.
Chapters
I. The Lie of the Average — The broken promise of ‘buy and hold,’ the Bessembinder reality, and the invisible volatility tax
II. The Theory of Ergodic Behavior — Path dependency, ergodicity, the Vase Principle, and why behavior destroys what selection builds
III. The Foundation — Why survival is the prerequisite for compounding, non-ergodicity, and the Barbell structure
IV. The Four Buckets — Cash, Index, Growth Selection, and Amplifiers as communicating vessels
V. The Lenses — Five calibration tools: Ergodicity, Duration, Power Law, Harvesting, and Behavior
VI. The Selection Process — Twin Engines, the 15/15 Rule, and identifying true compounders
VII. The Exceptions — When rules bend, the Coffee Can, and the five criteria of Untouchability
VIII. Conclusion: From Finite to Infinite — The system in one page
© 2026 Jocelyn Dubé. All rights reserved.
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author is not a licensed financial advisor. Readers should consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.