Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Negative Cost Growth Defies Gravity (20:00 min) “Growth at a reasonable price.” — Peter Lynch What if the price is not reasonable, not free — but negative? I. Three Generations of the Same Question Every generation of investors has asked the same question: what should I pay for…
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Coca-Cola vs Moody’s – What Buffett’s Portfolio Reveals
Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Moody’s beats the Coca-Cola moat (19:37 min) “We lived in a torrent of money, and we were constantly deploying it.” — Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, 2016 What if the torrent deployed itself? I. Two Holdings, One Portfolio Warren Buffett has held Coca-Cola since 1988 and…
The Compression Harvest – When You Get Paid to Own Growth
Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Harvesting Freesurfers during market panics (17:13 min) “The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” — Warren Buffett I. The Tide Goes Out When the tide goes out, the naked are exposed. The speculative growth stocks without earnings. The AI stories built…
From the Margin of Safety to the Free Growth Premium – How a Century of Investment Thinking Led to the Freesurfer
Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Wall Street misprices zero cost growth (19:05 min) “If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is — almost never.” — Philip Fisher, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (1958) I. The Bond Investor Who Built the Stock…
The A Paramount – When Growth Dissolves Into the Toll
Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why invisible growth breaks valuation models (27:31 min) “The best business is a royalty on the growth of others, requiring little capital itself.” — Warren Buffett * * * I. The Dissolution In “The Freesurfer,” we established that certain rare businesses ride structural waves at zero cost. The…
The Big One – When the Double Swell Freesurfer Meets Multiple Expansion
Listen to the deep-dive discussion – When the Best Growth Costs Nothing (19:42 min) “That wave was a wave we didn’t know existed. We hadn’t seen waves like that.” — Laird Hamilton, on the Millennium Wave at Teahupo’o * * * I. When Growth Is Free Every business can be decomposed into two forces….
Duration Revisited – From A+B to A×B
Listen to the deep-dive discussion – How Physical Duration Drives Multiplicative Growth (27:34 min) “Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.” — Warren Buffett * * * The Missing Dimension Duration is one of the oldest tools in finance. Bond investors have used it for decades to measure…
The Paradox of Wealth: Why Survival Beats Optimization (A Manifesto for the Ergodic Investor)
You have spent years building your wealth. You took risks, you optimized, and you won. You have reached the summit. But standing at the top, a strange feeling takes hold: vertigo. Why? Because you intuitively realize that the rules that got you here are not the rules that will keep you here. Traditional finance is…