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Averaging Up
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  • About
  • Mental Models
  • The Infinite Investor
    • Preface & Table of Contents
    • Chapter I: The Lie of the Average
    • Chapter II: Ergodicity and Behavior
    • Chapter III: The Foundation
    • Chapter IV: The Four Buckets
    • Chapter V: The Lenses
    • Chapter VI: The Selection Process
    • Chapter VII: The Exceptions
    • Conclusion: From Finite to Infinite
Averaging Up

Month: July 2026

The Tollkeeper That Outlives Its Payers – MSCI and the Migration of a Toll

Posted on July 27, 2026July 27, 2026

The industry needs us more. — Henry Fernandez, November 2025   Download the Slides Deck: MSCI_Toll_Structural_Cartography  Listen to the deep-dive discussion – How MSCI outlives its dying customers I. The Paradox Late last year, the chief executive of MSCI sat for an interview and described his own business with unusual candor. Three quarters of the…

The Light Toll Builds Its Railroad: Microsoft’s Bet on A Absorbing Its B

Posted on July 22, 2026July 22, 2026

We have to manage a capital-intensive business, but using all of the levers that software gives us… those are all the things that I think will generate great ROIC — and this is probably unique. — Satya Nadella, March 2026   Download the Slides Deck: The__190_Billion_Absorption  Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Microsoft’s 190 Billion…

The Price of Free Growth

Posted on July 16, 2026

Truly great businesses, earning huge returns on tangible assets, can’t for any extended period reinvest a large portion of their earnings internally at high rates of return. — Warren Buffett, 2007   Download the Slides Deck: The_Capital_Cap  Listen to the deep-dive discussion – The Price of Free Growth   Visa earns a return on invested…

Why Heavy-Toll Compounders Are Rare

Posted on July 11, 2026

Capital intensity by itself, it’s part of the equation. — Chris Hohn   Download the Slides Deck: Heavy Tolls Capital Absorbers  Listen to the deep-dive discussion – The Dangerous Illusion of High ROE   In 2025, Duke Energy reported a return on equity of roughly twelve percent. In the same year it spent fourteen billion…

The Three Components of Compounding: Return, Quantity, and Duration — and Why They Cannot All Be Maximized at Once

Posted on July 8, 2026July 8, 2026

Compounding is arbitrage, not optimization. — The Infinite Investor   Download the Slides Deck: Compounding_Components  Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Compounding Is A Structural Arbitrage     I. The Perfect Model Every business is a flow of capital between two reservoirs. The first is the toll — the cash the business collects in…

Capital Absorption and the Nature of Compounding – How Businesses Actually Compound

Posted on July 5, 2026July 5, 2026

“What an organism feeds upon is negative entropy.” — Erwin Schrödinger, What is Life?, 1944   Download the Slides Deck: Capital_Absorption  Listen to the deep-dive discussion – The Impossible Triangle of Compounding   I. The Cult of the Compounder No word in investing carries more reverence than compounding. The compounder is the prize — the…

How Cash Flow Ratios Measure Value Creation or Destruction : Locating a Business on the Spectrum of Absorption

Posted on July 3, 2026

“A company’s anticipated value creation is measured by how much its return on invested capital exceeds its cost of capital, as well as how long it can maintain a positive spread.” — Michael Mauboussin Download the Slides Deck: The_Spectrum_of_Absorption Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why most companies actually destroy value   I. From Principle…

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