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Averaging Up
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  • About
  • Mental Models
  • The Infinite Investor
    • Preface & Table of Contents
    • Chapter I: The Lie of the Average
    • Chapter II: Ergodicity and Behavior
    • Chapter III: The Foundation
    • Chapter IV: The Four Buckets
    • Chapter V: The Lenses
    • Chapter VI: The Selection Process
    • Chapter VII: The Exceptions
    • Conclusion: From Finite to Infinite
Averaging Up

Month: May 2026

Three Layers, Zero Cost – The Geometry of Compounding

Posted on May 30, 2026June 7, 2026

“Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world.” — Archimedes, 3rd century BC   Listen to the deep-dive discussion – How Freesurfers Multiply Profits For Free   Download the Slide Deck (PDF): Geometric_Compounding_AveragingUp I. What Hohn Sees In a rare interview, Chris Hohn—TCI…

The Architecture Beneath the Margin – Not All High Margins Are Created Equal

Posted on May 29, 2026May 30, 2026

“Your margin is my opportunity.” — Jeff Bezos Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Jeff Bezos is only half right   Download the Slide Deck (PDF) Beneath_the_Margin I. The Same Number, Two Different Realities Two businesses. Both report 60% operating margins. Both have maintained those margins for a decade. Both trade at premium multiples….

Cheap Money Hides Impurity – Why Rising Yields Reveal the Gradient

Posted on May 26, 2026June 5, 2026

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” — Warren Buffett Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Cheap Money Hides Impurity (20:11 min)   Download the Slide Deck (PDF) The_Yield_Gradient I. The Tide Goes Out The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached 5.19%—its highest level in nearly two decades. The last…

The Imperfect B – Why the Best Investments Live Between the Extremes

Posted on May 24, 2026June 8, 2026

Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Natural Versus Mechanical Corporate Growth (17:16 min)   Download the Slide Deck (PDF):The_Imperfect_B “There is a crack in everything. That’s how the light gets in.” — Leonard Cohen I. The Spectrum Without a Name The framework has defined two extremes. On one end, the Freesurfer. Growth costs nothing. The…

The Purification Trade – When a Freesurfer Sheds Its Mechanical B

Posted on May 20, 2026June 8, 2026

“Perfection is achieved not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.” — Antoine de Saint-Exupéry “Addition by subtraction.” — Adage   Listen to the deep-dive discussion – S&P Global sheds its mechanical business (19:43 min)   Download the Slide Deck (PDF) : The_Purification_Trade_SPGI I. The Filing…

Building the Ark vs. Climbing the Mountain – Why Captured Growth Is the Only Growth That Matters

Posted on May 18, 2026June 7, 2026

“If you are not in a franchise business protected from competition by barriers to entry, growth has no value, because any value that’s there is going to get competed away.” “These are rare.” — Bruce Greenwald   Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Moats Matter More Than Waves (24:21 min)   Download the Slide…

Inflation Doesn’t Punish Growth – It Punishes the Expensive B

Posted on May 14, 2026May 16, 2026

Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Wall Street Gets Inflation Backward (24:21 min)   “The best businesses during inflation are the businesses that you buy once and then you don’t have to keep making capital investments subsequently.” — Warren Buffett, 2015 “There are two kinds of businesses: The first earns 12%, and you can…

“WE DID NOT DO A DAMN THING” – What Buffett’s Apple Comment Reveals About the Hierarchy of Free Growth

Posted on May 10, 2026May 10, 2026

Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Making billions without doing a damn thing (23:18 min) “$35 billion became $185 billion. We did not do a damn thing. That’s the way we like it.” — Warren Buffett, Omaha, May 2026 1. Cook Was in the Room Tim Cook was in the room when Buffett said it….

The Availability Bias and the Invisible Gift – Why the Market Can’t Count What It Can’t See

Posted on May 10, 2026May 10, 2026

Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Your Brain Misses Invisible Growth Waves (10:30 min)   “What you see is all there is.” — Daniel Kahneman I. The Bias That Explains Everything Daniel Kahneman was a psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics. He never took an economics class. He didn’t need to. He…

Growth That Pays You – When the Cost of B Goes Negative

Posted on May 4, 2026June 10, 2026

“Growth at a reasonable price.” — Peter Lynch What if the price is not reasonable, not free — but negative? Download the Slide Deck (PDF) : Negative_Cost_Growth Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Negative Cost Growth Defies Gravity (20:00 min) I. Three Generations of the Same Question Every generation of investors has asked the…

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