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Averaging Up
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  • About
  • Mental Models
  • The Infinite Investor
    • Preface & Table of Contents
    • Chapter I: The Lie of the Average
    • Chapter II: Ergodicity and Behavior
    • Chapter III: The Foundation
    • Chapter IV: The Four Buckets
    • Chapter V: The Lenses
    • Chapter VI: The Selection Process
    • Chapter VII: The Exceptions
    • Conclusion: From Finite to Infinite
Averaging Up

Month: April 2026

Coca-Cola vs Moody’s – What Buffett’s Portfolio Reveals

Posted on April 24, 2026April 25, 2026

Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Moody’s beats the Coca-Cola moat (19:37 min)   “We lived in a torrent of money, and we were constantly deploying it.” — Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, 2016 What if the torrent deployed itself? I. Two Holdings, One Portfolio Warren Buffett has held Coca-Cola since 1988 and…

The Compression Harvest – When You Get Paid to Own Growth

Posted on April 17, 2026April 24, 2026

Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Harvesting Freesurfers during market panics (17:13 min)   “The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” — Warren Buffett I. The Tide Goes Out When the tide goes out, the naked are exposed. The speculative growth stocks without earnings. The AI stories built…

The Permanent Wave – When the Negative Risk Premium Breaks the Spreadsheets

Posted on April 12, 2026April 14, 2026

Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Spreadsheets Misprice Return on Infinity (21:04 min)   “Bearing a gift beyond price — almost free.” — Neil Peart, “The Spirit of Radio,” 1980 *     *     * I. The Toll and the Wave Every business can be decomposed into two forces operating on different time horizons. The A…

From the Visible Trap to the Invisible Gift : Return OF Capital, Return ON Capital, and the Third Category the Spreadsheet Cannot See

Posted on April 9, 2026April 9, 2026

Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Spreadsheets miss infinite return (20:03 min)   “The market makes you overpay for what you can see — and underpay for what it cannot.” — Averaging Up I. Return on Reinvested Earnings Warren Buffett identified the benchmark decades ago. A great business compounds book value at approximately 15%…

From the Margin of Safety to the Free Growth Premium – How a Century of Investment Thinking Led to the Freesurfer

Posted on April 6, 2026April 6, 2026

Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why Wall Street misprices zero cost growth (19:05 min)   “If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is — almost never.” — Philip Fisher, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (1958) I. The Bond Investor Who Built the Stock…

The Visa Reef – How the World’s Strongest Moat Absorbs Every Threat — and Why It Remains Structurally Undervalued

Posted on April 4, 2026April 5, 2026

Listen to the deep-dive discussion –  Why Visa is Safer Than Treasury Bonds (19:05 min)   I. The Architecture Visa does not lend money. Visa does not hold deposits. Visa does not take credit risk. Visa does not own inventory. Visa does not build factories. Visa does one thing: it operates a network through which…

The A Paramount – When Growth Dissolves Into the Toll

Posted on April 3, 2026April 3, 2026

Listen to the deep-dive discussion – Why invisible growth breaks valuation models (27:31 min)   “The best business is a royalty on the growth of others, requiring little capital itself.” — Warren Buffett *     *     * I. The Dissolution In “The Freesurfer,” we established that certain rare businesses ride structural waves at zero cost. The…

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